Is Carl Edwards in trouble?

Standing as of July 14th:

Rank        Name                                     Pts            Wins
 1.            Matt Kenseth                         676             1
 2.            Dale Earnhardt Jr.                  651             1
 3.            Greg Biffle                             632             1
 4.            Jimmie Johnson                      618             2
 5.            Tony Stewart                         586             3
 6.            Kevin Harvick                       586              0
 7.            Denny Hamlin                        584             2
 8.            Martin Truex Jr.                     584             0
 9.            Brad Keselowski                   573             3
10.           Clint Boyer                            572             1
11.           Carl Edwards                        541             0

*Wild Card winners: Kyle Busch and Joey Lagano

Carl is in big trouble folks, last year runner up, in the Sprint Cup Series may not make it to the Chase as a championship contender. Carl needs to get his act together and win some races or start consistently finishing in the top 10, even the top 5. If he doesn't then as they currently sit, he will miss the cut by being eleventh.

Now I know what you are thinking. Yes, there are still plenty of races until the Chase but my question is what is Carl's chance at winning a race beforehand.

Race                                                         Chance
New Hampshire                                        Moderate
Brickyard 400 - Indy                                Moderate
Pocono                                                    High - Best Track
Watkins Glen                                            Low
Michigan                                                  High
Bristol                                                      Moderate to High
Atlanta                                                     High
Richmond                                                Moderate

Carl's best chance will be at Pocono. Carl always seems to drive well on that track. There are a few that he excels at on the list, like Michigan and Atlanta. It seems he is better on 1.5 mile tracks than anywhere else. Let's hope that he can make it to the Chase.